Friday, October 16, 2026

Flyover Finance

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Friday, October 16, 2026

Good Morning! Did paying for the basics get harder for your household this year? A new Pew survey found more than four in 10 Americans had trouble covering medical care, transportation, housing, or food, and adults under 30 had it toughest. Hit reply and tell us how you’re holding up.

On the brighter side, retirees have a raise coming. Social Security checks will grow 3.6% in January, about $75 a month for the typical retiree, which ties for the fifth-largest raise in 35 years. Better yet, Medicare’s Part B premium is projected to rise less than that, so retirees would keep more of their raise for the first time since 2023. Read more in today’s Rotator section.

Today’s Flyover Finance is brought to you by Stansberry Research. Investor Whitney Tilson has long favored Berkshire Hathaway for retirement portfolios. Now, he’s sharing a lesser-known company he believes could offer an even better opportunity, along with its stock symbol.

Wall Street is worried about how AI gets paid for.

Let’s start with stocks. The Dow jumped 1.1% yesterday as investors moved money out of AI stocks and into steadier ones like health care. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% after erasing a morning loss, and the Nasdaq added 0.1%. That was a turnaround from Wednesday, when the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.9%, both indexes’ worst days since July. A hotter-than-expected inflation report and a slide in AI-linked stocks drove those losses.

AI stocks took the hardest hit. The hot consumer inflation report raised expectations that the Fed will keep raising interest rates, and investors worry that higher rates will make it harder for companies to pay for AI projects. Cloud computing giant Oracle dropped nearly 9% on Wednesday, and CoreWeave—a heavily indebted company that rents out AI computing power—fell 15%.

More inflation news arrived yesterday. Wholesale prices rose 6.3% in September from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 2022 and well above the 5.5% economists expected. These prices track what businesses get paid for their goods, so an increase can mean stores raise their prices in the months ahead. Energy drove much of the jump, as conflict in the Middle East cut oil supplies and sent fuel prices soaring. A day earlier, a separate government report showed prices at the checkout up 3.7% from a year earlier.

What to watch today: Regional banks Truist, M&T and Regions report earnings before the opening bell, along with insurer Travelers. Preorders for Apple’s foldable iPhone Duo also open today at 8 a.m. ET.

Flying together with our sponsor

Whitney Tilson’s Next Retirement Stock to Watch

For years, Whitney Tilson recommended Berkshire Hathaway to readers investing for retirement. Now, the Stansberry Research editor believes he may have found an even better opportunity for the years ahead.

His pick is a lesser-known company with assets tied to two major American industries, including artificial intelligence. Tilson believes those assets, along with the company’s dividend potential, make it worth a closer look.

In his free presentation, he explains what the business owns, why it has caught his attention, and the case behind his outlook. He also reveals the company’s name and ticker symbol, so you can explore the idea yourself.

No credit card or email address required.

See Tilson’s stock pick and the reasoning behind it.

➤ Buy: Jefferies upgraded Brinker International (EAT), the owner of Chili’s, from Hold to Buy and raised its price target from $230 to $255. Jefferies says Chili’s has turned itself around with a refreshed menu and value deals. (More)

➤ Hold: Barclays downgraded Dell Technologies (DELL) from Buy to Hold. Some of Dell’s recent sales growth came from raising prices to cover costlier parts, but Barclays is still waiting for corporate customers to buy more Dell equipment for AI. (More)

➤ Sell: Bank of America cut Albertsons (ACI) from Hold to Sell and lowered its price target from $16 to $12. The grocer pulled its outlook for the year while it reviews its whole business, and the bank expects its profits to stay under pressure for the next year or so. (More)

Household Finances

Adults under 30 had the hardest time affording the basics this past year, at 60%.

➤ More than four in 10 Americans had trouble paying for at least one basic need in the past year, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. Pew looked at four needs: medical care, transportation, rent or a mortgage, and needing a food bank or pantry. Adults under 30 were the most likely to have trouble, and those 65 and older were the least likely.

Medical care was the hardest bill to cover, with 28% of Americans saying they had trouble paying for it. Among those who struggled with any of the four, half borrowed money from friends or family, and nearly a third took out a payday or other short-term loan.

Source: Pew Research Center.

Retirement Strategy

Social Security checks will grow 3.6% next year, and Medicare may take less of the raise.

Social Security benefits will rise 3.6% in January, the Social Security Administration announced Wednesday. That’s about $75 more a month for the typical retiree, and it ties for the fifth-largest raise in 35 years.

The yearly raise is meant to keep benefits in step with rising prices. Wednesday’s September inflation report was the last piece of data the government needed to set it. Most retirees on traditional Medicare have their Part B premium taken out of their Social Security check. In each of the last three years, that premium rose faster than the raise and ate into it.

Next year’s premium is projected to rise 3.25%, to $209.50 a month. That would let retirees keep more of their raise for the first time since 2023. The official premium comes out in November.

➤ Home sellers outnumbered buyers by about 63% in September, the widest gap in Redfin’s records going back to 2013. Redfin says high costs are keeping buyers away, while sellers who are tired of waiting keep listing their homes. (More)

➤ Netflix is laying off about 1,000 workers, roughly 6% of its staff, in its biggest round of job cuts to date. The cuts come even though Netflix’s profit rose 26% last year, to $11 billion. (More)

➤ President Trump announced that “massive” oil, gas, and mineral exploration will soon begin in Greenland, but the island’s deputy mining minister said that kind of exploration is still a long way off. (More)

➤ Apple became the second company to ever finish a trading day worth more than $5 trillion, joining Nvidia. It had crossed that mark during trading six times before but never held the valuation through the close. (More)

➤ Eight states sued OpenAI on Wednesday, accusing the ChatGPT maker of misleading parents about the chatbot’s safety and harming children. (More)