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NASDAQ 25,955.34 ▼ -0.21%
SPX 7,623.68 ▼ -0.52%
DJI 52,215.16 ▼ -1.24%
BTC $81,180.92 ▼ -0.16%
GOLD $4,014.40 ▼ -1.13%
SLVR $54.04 ▼ -1.32%
OIL $103.69 ▲ +4.24%
10Y 4.99% ▲ +0.75%
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Good Morning! It’s a big week for anyone who owns stocks or bonds. The Fed announces its interest-rate decision Wednesday afternoon, Alphabet and Microsoft report earnings that evening, and Thursday brings the first estimate of third-quarter economic growth along with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Americans are a little more hopeful about the year ahead than they were a month ago… but they still feel worse about the economy right now than they did at the bottom of the 2008 financial crisis. Our Chart of the Day shows how far the mood has fallen.
American Express charges some cardholders hundreds of dollars a year for perks like airport lounges. Do you pay an annual fee for a credit card, and is it worth it? Hit reply and tell us.
Today’s Flyover Finance is brought to you by Stansberry Research. Investor Whitney Tilson has long favored Berkshire Hathaway for retirement portfolios. Now, he’s sharing a lesser-known company he believes could offer an even better opportunity, along with its stock symbol.
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Companies Are Raising Prices at the Fastest Pace since 2022
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Let’s start with stocks. The Dow fell 1.2% to 52,215.16 and the S&P 500 lost 0.5% on Friday as oil rose to its highest price since April. Brent crude climbed 3.1% to $116.72 a barrel, up from less than $97 at the start of October. Nearly three of every four stocks in the S&P 500 fell, capping a second straight losing week for the index after Thursday’s AI-driven slide in tech. As of 8 a.m. ET, Dow futures were up 0.4% and S&P 500 futures were up 0.3%, while Brent crude slipped below $110 a barrel.
Bond prices jumped last week as investors pulled money out of tech stocks and into Treasurys. The 10-year Treasury yield, which helps set rates on mortgages and car loans, fell back below 5% on Thursday for the first time since September. It was the yield’s biggest one-day drop since the March 2023 banking crisis. Earlier this month, the yield had hit its highest level in more than two decades.
Businesses are raising prices at the fastest pace in more than four years. S&P Global’s monthly survey of purchasing managers found that prices charged for goods and services rose the most since August 2022, and new orders hit their highest level since March 2022. Strong demand is letting companies pass higher costs on to customers, a sign that inflation could climb further.
 What to watch today: The Dallas Fed releases its October survey of Texas factories at 10:30 a.m. ET, and Whirlpool reports earnings after the close. Tomorrow, Coca-Cola, Boeing, and UPS report before the bell and Visa reports after it. The Fed also begins a two-day meeting tomorrow, with its decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
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➤ Buy: Phillip Securities upgraded SpaceX (SPCX) from Sell to Buy and raised its price target from $75 to $250. Demand for SpaceX’s AI computing power is outpacing what it can build, and customers are renewing contracts at higher prices. (More)
➤ Hold: Piper Sandler downgraded life insurer Globe Life (GL) from Buy to Hold and cut its price target from $200 to $165. After Globe Life’s latest quarter missed forecasts, analysts flagged medical claims that are getting larger and harder to predict. (More)
➤ Sell: JPMorgan downgraded Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) from Hold to Sell. About 85% of Norwegian’s European cruises are booked by Americans, and the bank worries tensions overseas will keep those bookings from bouncing back. (More)
➤ Sell: Piper Sandler downgraded UGG and Hoka maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK) from Hold to Sell and cut its price target from $100 to $75. Some of Hoka’s newest shoes haven’t sold as well as expected, and Piper Sandler doesn’t see the sneaker market recovering until next summer or fall. (More)
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2008-October 2026
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Consumer sentiment is still below its 2008 and 2022 lows, at 48.0.
➤ Consumer sentiment held at 48.0 in October, barely changed from September and the second-lowest final reading ever. It’s up from May’s record low of 44.8 but still below the worst points of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2022 inflation spike.
The University of Michigan says buying conditions for big-ticket items like cars and appliances fell 18% this month on higher interest rates and affordability worries. Americans also expect faster inflation, with year-ahead expectations rising for a second straight month to their highest since May.
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Source: University of Michigan
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Company Spotlight
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AmEx’s well-off customers are still spending freely.
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American Express raised its 2026 profit forecast on Friday after its cardholders charged $454 billion last quarter, 8% more than a year earlier. Affluent customers drove that spending on travel, dining, and shopping.
AmEx makes money differently from most card companies. It earns a fee from stores on every purchase, and it charges yearly fees for cards like Platinum, which come with perks such as airport lounges and restaurant reservations. Those card fees are now its fastest-growing source of revenue, bringing in $3 billion last quarter, up 17%.
Its customers also tend to pay their bills. The share of AmEx card balances that are behind on payments has stayed at 1.2% or 1.3% for 15 straight quarters. CEO Stephen Squeri said the company’s premium customers continue to show “great strength and stability.”
Chase, Capital One, and Citi are all going after the same high-end cardholders. Rewards and perks already cost AmEx about 44 cents of every revenue dollar, and analysts on Friday’s call asked whether AI tools could help cardholders squeeze even more out of them.
AmEx is also trimming costs. It plans to cut about 5% of its jobs worldwide, which Squeri said would make the company more agile and efficient.
By the Numbers: American Express
- Market value: about $211 billion
- Stock, past year: down about 11%
- Annual sales: $72.2 billion in 2025, up 10%
- Profit: $10.8 billion, or about 15 cents of every dollar of sales
- Employees: about 76,800
- Dividend: $3.80 a share per year
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➤ Redfin ranked the 10 big U.S. housing markets where sellers are cutting prices most, and three of the top five are in Texas. (More)
➤ OpenAI dropped the valuation it’s pitching to new investors from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion after some balked at the price. (More)
➤ The International Monetary Fund found that about 95% of global growth now comes from just 32 economies as the AI boom carries more of the load. (More)
➤ Volvo plans to cut about 2,500 jobs after competition from Chinese carmakers pushed it to a quarterly loss. (More)
➤ The first Russian diesel shipment to the U.S. won’t arrive until after the midterms, and analysts say it’s too small to lower prices. (More)
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▲ BULLISH · 71%
Composite score based on our previous edition’s votes.
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What is a target-date fund?
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