Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Flyover Finance

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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Good Morning! Americans voted yesterday, but history suggests the outcome may not matter much for stocks. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has risen every time in the six months after a midterm election, according to Edward Jones.

Apple just had its best September quarter ever, but it’s warning that its profit on each sale will shrink over the holidays. The problem is a small part inside every iPhone and Mac. Today’s Company Spotlight explains.

Central banks are buying more gold than they have in years. Do you own any gold, and has this year changed how you feel about it? Hit reply and tell us.

Today’s sponsor, American Hartford Gold, explores what the AI boom could mean for your retirement savings. Their free 2027 Wealth Preservation Guide covers potential risks and strategies for protecting what you’ve worked hard to build. Get your free guide here.

Big Tech Is Borrowing Billions to Keep Building AI

Let’s start with stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% yesterday and the Nasdaq gained 0.8% as chip stocks bounced back, while the Dow lost 0.4%. On Monday, AI stocks had flipped from morning gains to afternoon losses. The gains came despite a drop for Apple after its earnings report, and most stocks in the S&P 500 fell. Brent crude fell 1.1% to $103.60 a barrel as uncertainty over the war with Iran kept prices swinging.

Meta Platforms began selling at least $20 billion in bonds yesterday to help pay for AI, a day after Oracle filed to raise money through new stock and bonds. It’s Meta’s first bond sale since April, and Meta is also preparing its first-ever bonds in euros. Bond investors have grown warier of how much tech giants are spending on AI, so they’re asking for higher interest rates than they did earlier this year.

Employers posted 7.5 million job openings in September, 333,000 more than in August and more than economists expected. The number of workers who quit rose to 3.4 million, the most since March 2025, led by restaurants and hotels. Layoffs held steady at about 1.6 million.

What to watch today: The Institute for Supply Management releases its October survey of service businesses at 10 a.m. ET. After the close, chip companies Qualcomm and Arm report earnings.

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➤ Buy: Freedom Broker upgraded steelmaker Nucor (NUE) from Hold to Buy and raised its price target from $285 to $304. Nucor’s third-quarter profit beat its own forecast, and the company brought in $1.6 billion in free cash flow during the quarter. (More)

➤ Buy: UBS upgraded electric-vehicle maker Rivian (RIVN) from Hold to Buy. UBS says early demand for the new R2 looks solid and expects the model to help Rivian earn more on each vehicle than it costs to build by the end of this year. (More)

➤ Hold: Evercore upgraded Clorox (CLX) from Sell to Hold. Incoming CEO Fabian Garcia has turned struggling companies around before, and Evercore thinks he can do the same at Clorox. (More)

➤ Sell: Morgan Stanley downgraded crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) from Hold to Sell and cut its price target from $258 to $120. The bank says slow crypto trading and weaker sales prospects could drag on Coinbase’s profits for years. (More)

Manufacturing

Factories’ biggest gripe isn’t tariffs or the Iran war — it’s price swings, at 62%.

➤ U.S. factories grew for the 10th straight month in October, but the people running them are getting gloomier. Two-thirds of their comments to the Institute for Supply Management’s survey were negative, and the mood has soured three months in a row. Unpredictable prices came up most.

The prices factories pay have climbed for 25 straight months. ISM’s survey chief doesn’t expect them to calm down until the Iran war and the trade fights ease, and she thinks growth would take off if the war ended. Economists say those costs will keep inflation above the Fed’s 2% target into 2027, and they expect a rate hike in December.

Source: Institute for Supply Management.

Company Spotlight

Apple is selling more but keeping less.

Apple posted record September-quarter sales of $114.5 billion in John Ternus’ first earnings report as CEO. Sales rose 12%, but the company warned that soaring prices for memory chips will squeeze its profit margins over the holidays.

Memory chips hold the data in every iPhone and Mac, and Ternus called the recent run-up in their prices “unprecedented.” Apple raised Mac and iPad prices in June and iPhone prices in September to cover some of that cost.

The squeeze shows up in Apple’s gross margin. Tariff refunds helped lift it to 47.9% last quarter, and Apple expects 45% to 46% this quarter, below the 46.9% analysts expected. Costs for its new Siri AI are adding to the pressure.

Demand is holding up. iPhone sales rose more than 17% to $57.6 billion despite supply shortages, and Mac sales jumped about 24%. Apple also expects this quarter’s sales to grow faster than analysts had forecast, and its new iPhone Duo didn’t go on sale until after the last quarter ended.

Relief may not come soon. Ternus expects memory prices to keep climbing after December, and Apple has already raised its prices twice this year.

By the Numbers: Apple

Market value: about $4.84 trillion
Stock, past year: up about 23%
Annual sales: $478.8 billion in fiscal 2026 (ended Sept. 26), up 15%
Profit: $132.2 billion, or about 28 cents of every dollar of sales
Employees: more than 150,000
Dividend: $1.08 a share per year

➤ Central banks bought 321 metric tons of gold last quarter, their fastest pace of buying since 2024. (More)

➤ Pfizer beat Wall Street’s profit forecast and raised its 2026 sales outlook to between $62 billion and $64 billion. (More)

➤ Companies announced about 247,000 U.S. factory jobs through reshoring and foreign investment last year, and a new report expects about 309,000 in 2026. (More)

➤ Marvell Technology agreed to buy optical-parts maker Lumentum for $115 billion in stock, one of the biggest tech deals ever. (More)

➤ Home appraisals on loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac switched to a single new report Monday, replacing forms used for decades. (More)

➤ Kimberly-Clark closed its $48.7 billion purchase of Tylenol maker Kenvue and now owns 10 brands with at least $1 billion in yearly sales. (More)