Friday, November 6, 2026

Flyover Finance

NASDAQ 24,315.00  ▼ -5.52%
SPX 7,353.73  ▼ -4.36%
DJI 51,523.06  ▼ -3.44%
BTC $75,835.12  ▼ -5.68%
GOLD $4,108.10  ▲ +0.86%
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10Y 4.84%  ▼ -1.10%

Friday, November 6, 2026

Good Morning! Investors spent the week working out what a Democratic Congress means for their money, and the answer depended a lot on what they owned. Beer? Solar power? Analysts think both are impacted by Tuesday’s election results.

Election nights tend to rattle investors, but history has been kind to those who sit tight through the year that follows. Our Chart of the Day shows how the last six midterm cycles played out in the market.

Reader optimism about the economy has dropped 21 points in about two weeks. Has the election changed how you or your financial manager think about your portfolio? Hit reply and tell us whether you’re making any moves.

Today’s sponsor, Fisher Investments, offers a free guide to help investors with $1 million or more explore seven retirement income strategies and weigh their options.

Election Hopes Sink Oil Before Iran Worries Lift Prices

Let’s start with stocks. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on Thursday, its worst day since the April 2025 tariff selloff, as stocks tied to AI data centers crashed. Investors worry the Democrats’ wins could lead to pauses in building new data centers. The drop more than erased Wednesday’s gain, which was the market’s best day in three months. The Dow lost more than 1,800 points, and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.5%, leaving it more than 10% below last month’s record.

Oil prices had their biggest one-day drop since April on Wednesday as investors bet the election would push President Donald Trump to end the Iran war. U.S. crude fell 8.3%, and the global benchmark known as Brent slipped below $100 a barrel. Prices climbed back some yesterday amid a New York Times report that U.S. forces are ready to resume major combat with Iran. Even after the drop, oil is still about 60% higher than it was at the start of the year.

Investors piled into Treasurys after the election and pushed yields to their lowest level in almost two months. Traders expect a split Washington to slow government spending and borrowing, and the $5,000 payments President Trump promised adult citizens if Republicans held Congress now look unlikely. The 10-year Treasury yield helps set mortgage rates and finished Wednesday near 4.9% before falling further yesterday.

What to watch today: The University of Michigan releases its preliminary November reading on consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. ET, including what Americans expect for inflation. October’s final reading was 48.0, close to the record low set in May.

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➤ Buy: William Blair upgraded solar panel maker First Solar (FSLR) from Hold to Buy. The firm expects Tuesday’s election results to win more local support for large solar farms but says new orders will take time to show up. (More)

➤ Buy: Truist upgraded heart-valve maker Edwards Lifesciences (EW) from Hold to Buy and raised its price target from $95 to $113. Truist expects more patients to get Edwards’ replacement heart valves after a new study found they led to fewer hospital stays for heart failure. (More)

➤ Hold: Bank of America upgraded Corona and Modelo brewer Constellation Brands (STZ) from Sell to Hold and raised its price target from $120 to $160. The bank estimates Hispanic customers buy about 40% of Constellation’s U.S. beer and thinks a Democratic Congress lowers the risk that stricter immigration enforcement cuts into their spending. (More)

➤ Sell: Citi downgraded Adobe (ADBE) from Hold to Sell and lowered its price target from $250 to $207. Citi expects Adobe’s incoming CEO to make changes to the business behind Photoshop that slow growth for a while, and the bank sees rising competition from AI design tools. (More)

➤ Sell: Morgan Stanley downgraded New York lender Flagstar Bank (FLG) from Buy to Sell. Higher interest rates are slowing the bank’s turnaround more than Morgan Stanley expected, and the firm thinks Flagstar will cut its 2027 forecast again. (More)

Stocks After Midterms

2002 – 2022 midterms

Dow investors have gained after every midterm since 2002, including 14.6% after Trump’s first midterm in 2018.

➤ The year after a midterm has historically been one of the better stretches of the four-year presidential cycle. Dow investors came out ahead in each of the last six, counting dividends. In Donald Trump’s first midterm in 2018, Democrats also took back the House. Wall Street has historically favored a divided government like the one voters chose Tuesday.

This year starts from higher ground, though. The rallies after the 2002 and 2022 midterms came out of severe bear markets, while an S&P 500 fund came into Wednesday up 11.9% for the year.

Source: 24/7 Wall St.

Alternative Assets

The election gave gold a lift, not a comeback.

Gold and silver jumped after Democrats won control of Congress. Gold rose about 3% the day after the election. Silver gained nearly 5%, and platinum and palladium climbed too. Gold hit a two-week high yesterday before giving back some of that gain.

Two things moved at once. The dollar fell, which makes gold cheaper for buyers who use other currencies. Treasury yields fell too, and gold, which pays no interest, competes better when bonds pay less.

Analysts don’t agree on why the election set that off. Capital Economics said investors grew more worried about the government’s finances. StoneX had predicted before the vote that a Democratic Congress would push both interest rates and the dollar lower.

One good week doesn’t undo the year, though. Gold soared 66% in 2025 and silver 135%, but both are down in 2026, and gold remains well below the record it set in January.

Gold has also been moving more in step with stocks lately. Capital Economics warned that more weakness in tech stocks could drag gold down with them.

➤ Wendy’s rejected a $1.4 billion buyout offer led by activist investor Nelson Peltz’s firm, saying the bid undervalues the burger chain. (More)

➤ Tesla and SpaceX shares fell after Democrats won Congress, raising the risk of tougher scrutiny for a possible merger of Elon Musk’s companies. (More)

➤ Morgan Stanley says it’s among the first banks to put U.S. stocks and Treasurys on a blockchain, where they can trade around the clock. (More)

➤ The number of homes under contract fell 10.5% in October from a year earlier, the biggest drop in nearly three years. (More)

➤ Toyota raised its full-year profit forecast even though its quarterly profit fell 19% from a year earlier. (More)