Friday, October 30, 2026

Flyover Finance

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Friday, October 30, 2026

Good Morning! DoorDash agreed to buy Instacart for about $17 billion. Instacart shareholders would get $65 a share, 26% more than the stock was worth before word of the talks got out. The deal isn’t expected to close until the end of 2027 at the earliest.

Mortgage rates have eased a little, but home buyers are still on the sidelines and refinancing has stalled. Today’s Real Estate section explains what’s holding everyone back.

Costly borrowing is making solar panels a harder sell for homeowners, according to one Wall Street firm’s call on a home solar equipment maker in today’s Buy, Sell, Hold. Have you put solar panels on your home or rental property, and if so, did they pay off? Hit reply and tell us.

Could the biggest opportunity tied to Elon Musk be a company you’ve never heard of? Today’s sponsor, InvestorPlace, shares analyst Luke Lango’s take on what could happen if SpaceX and Tesla converge, and why a stock he highlights at $15 could play a role.

Google’s Results Reignite Doubts About Making Money From AI

Let’s start with stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% yesterday, its first drop in four days, as Alphabet’s stock had its worst day on record. The Nasdaq lost 1.4% and the Dow slipped 0.3%. Most stocks rose, and without Alphabet the S&P 500 would have finished higher. Treasury yields fell too, and the 10-year yield dipped below 5%.

Wall Street’s worries about whether AI spending will pay off came back yesterday. Alphabet’s free cash flow came in at negative $9.07 billion last quarter, while analysts had expected a shortfall of about $2.7 billion. Free cash flow is the cash left after running the business and paying for new equipment. The company has been pouring money into data centers to compete in AI.

The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday, but two of its 12 voting members wanted to raise them again. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Governor Lisa Cook pushed for another quarter-point hike after September’s increase, the central bank’s first since 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has run above the Fed’s 2% goal for close to six years. After the decision, traders saw about an 83% chance of a hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting.

What to watch today: The Chicago Business Barometer comes out at 9:45 a.m. ET. Economists expect the monthly survey of Midwest businesses to slip to about 55 from 58.8 in September, though any reading above 50 means business is still growing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks at noon ET. It’s also the last trading day of October.

Flying together with our sponsor

Two Famous Companies. One Under-the-Radar Stock.

Tesla and SpaceX attract plenty of attention. But former VC insider Luke Lango believes investors could be overlooking a smaller company connected to Musk’s ambitions.

His thesis: A convergence of SpaceX and Tesla could help unlock what he estimates is $126 trillion in potential wealth creation. It’s a bold prediction, and it hinges on developments that remain speculative.

At the center of his research is a stock he highlights at approximately $15 a share.

What does this company do? And why does Lango believe it could benefit as Musk’s plans unfold?

InvestorPlace’s presentation lays out his reasoning, the company he’s watching, and how it fits into the bigger picture.

See the $15 stock behind Lango’s thesis.

➤ Buy: Bernstein kept its Buy rating on Microsoft (MSFT) and raised its price target from $662 to $722. The firm credits efficiency gains for 48% growth in Microsoft’s Azure cloud business last quarter, and Microsoft expects Azure to speed up this quarter. (More)

➤ Buy: Jefferies upgraded Roto-Rooter parent Chemed (CHE) from Hold to Buy and raised its price target from $520 to $620. Chemed’s hospice business grew sales 12% last quarter, and Jefferies says Roto-Rooter’s plumbing business is no longer dragging down earnings. (More)

➤ Hold: Citizens downgraded Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) from Buy to Hold. Google searches are growing at their fastest pace in five years, but Citizens says the company is having a harder time turning them into ad sales. (More)

➤ Hold: Oppenheimer downgraded home solar equipment maker Enphase Energy (ENPH) from Buy to Hold. The firm says high interest rates are keeping U.S. solar installations weak, and price cuts on Enphase’s batteries are starting to squeeze its profit margins. (More)

➤ Sell: Stifel downgraded appliance maker Whirlpool (WHR) from Hold to Sell and cut its price target from $30 to $20. Stifel believes Whirlpool is losing U.S. customers to rivals, and price increases to cover pricier steel and plastic could drive more of them away. (More)

Economic Growth

Q3 2025 – Q3 2026

The economy grew at its fastest pace in a year last quarter, at 3.4%.

➤ The economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate from July through September, faster than economists expected. Growth bounced back from the end of 2025, when the economy nearly stalled.

Business purchases of computers led a jump in equipment spending, and Americans spent more on health care and restaurant meals. Separate data released the same morning showed the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 3.6% in the year through September, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Real Estate

Mortgage rates dipped, but buyers aren’t biting.

The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 7.24% yesterday, down from 7.32% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac. The rate is the lowest since late September but remains more than a full percentage point above last year’s level.

Lenders price home loans off the 10-year Treasury yield, so mortgage rates follow the bond market more closely than they follow the Fed. That yield climbed above 5.3% earlier this month and has eased since, pulling mortgage rates down with it.

Home buyers haven’t jumped back in. Purchase applications were 18% below last year’s pace in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey, and more borrowers are choosing adjustable-rate loans to lower their monthly payments. Those loans made up 11.3% of applications, the highest share in more than a year.

Homeowners aren’t refinancing either. About half of borrowers have mortgage rates below 4%, so refinance applications are down 61% from a year ago.

Relief may be slow to come. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects the 30-year rate to average 7.3% this quarter, and Fannie Mae’s forecast is 7.4%. Both expect rates to stay above 7% next year, too.

➤ Shell nearly doubled its quarterly profit from a year earlier on record refining margins and raised its next share buyback to $5 billion. (More)

➤ Wendy’s got a roughly $1.4 billion offer to go private from investment firm Trian, a 20% premium over the struggling burger chain’s stock price. (More)

➤ The Bank of Canada made its first rate hike in more than three years, lifting its rate to 2.5% as higher energy prices threaten to push up inflation. (More)

➤ Boston Scientific shares hit their lowest level since 2022 after the medical-device maker said an August cyberattack will push its sales down this quarter. (More)

➤ Coinbase said customer funds are safe after a security incident at analytics vendor Amplitude exposed some users’ contact information. (More)