Monday, October 12, 2026

Flyover Finance

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Monday, October 12, 2026

Good Morning! And welcome to the first edition of Flyover Finance. A quick heads-up before we start: banks and the bond market are closed today for Columbus Day, but stocks are trading as usual, so a deposit or transfer may land a day late.

We started Flyover Finance to cover money and markets plainly, with the numbers that matter and none of the jargon. Each edition opens with the Market Summary, followed by analyst calls, a chart, a deeper story and quick hits. The numbers at the top of this email are from Friday’s close.

We want this to be a conversation. Use the Bullish and Bearish buttons near the bottom to tell us how you feel about the economy today, and hit reply with what you’d like to see more of.

One last thing: Are you doing any of the eleven dumbest things that smart people do with money? There’s only one way to find out: check out today’s sponsor, FinanceBuzz.

The Market Summary

The Fed found a growing wealth gap between old and young.

Let’s start with stocks. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high on Tuesday, slipped the next two days, then bounced back Friday to finish the week up about 1%. The Dow gained about 1.2% for the week. The Nasdaq barely moved, after tech stocks fell Thursday on reports that OpenAI is bringing in about $20 billion less a year than previously estimated. Oil swung all week as traders weighed when the war with Iran will let energy markets return to normal. This morning, oil climbed again to about $106 a barrel after Russia struck Ukrainian power plants, but stock futures barely moved.

A survey released by the Federal Reserve found that Americans 75 and older are now the country’s wealthiest age group. Stock market gains drove much of that, while the youngest families actually saw their wealth shrink over the past three years. The richest 10% of families saw their typical net worth jump 31% from 2022 to 2025, to $3.6 million. Incomes rose broadly after inflation, but more families fell behind on their debt payments.

Hurricane Isaias forced oil companies to shut down about 72% of Gulf oil production before it hit, roughly 1.5 million barrels a day. The storm came ashore on the Gulf Coast on Friday evening and weakened overnight. Its path also shifted east, so one energy consultancy cut its estimate of lost oil production from 9 million barrels to about 7.2 million.

What to watch today: Banks and the bond market are closed for Columbus Day, but the stock market is open. Big bank earnings start tomorrow, when JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report, and the government’s September inflation report comes out Wednesday.

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BUY • SELL • HOLD

➤ Buy: Baird upgraded Humana (HUM) from Hold to Buy and raised its price target from $390 to $596. Humana’s Medicare Advantage plans scored much better on the government’s latest quality ratings, which means the company will get bonus payments for nearly all its members starting in 2028. (More)

➤ Hold: Bank of America cut Smithfield Foods (SFD) from Buy to Hold and lowered its price target from $25 to $21. Pork prices and hog farmers’ profits have gotten worse since early September, though the bank’s outlook for Smithfield’s packaged meats, like bacon and ham, hasn’t changed. (More)

➤ Sell: Morgan Stanley cut Gemini (GEMI), the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, from Hold to Sell. The company already laid off about a quarter of its workers this year, and the bank doubts it can grow sales enough to turn a profit. (More)

Chart of the Day

U-Michigan Consumer Sentiment

May – October 2026

Consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month, to 46.3.

➤ Consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month in October, according to a preliminary survey from the University of Michigan. After recovering to 55.2 in July, the index has slipped every month since, and October’s 46.3 sits just above May’s record low.

Americans feel even worse about how things stand right now. The survey’s measure of current conditions fell from 50.9 in September to 44.7, the worst reading in at least 50 years. People also expect prices to rise 4.7% over the next year, up from 4.6%. Final October numbers come out Oct. 23.

Source: University of Michigan.

The Rotator

Real Estate

Home affordability is near its worst since 2008.

J.P. Morgan researchers say housing affordability is near its worst level since the financial crisis. The typical monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, is about $2,800, or roughly 38% of a typical household’s income before taxes.

The bank calls the market “frozen.” About 75% of borrowers have mortgage rates below 5%, so many owners are staying put rather than taking on a new loan at today’s rates above 7%. The country is also short about 1.2 million homes. Over the past 25 years, home prices have grown 1.7% a year, while household income grew just 0.4%.

Young buyers are getting hit hardest. Homeownership among Americans under 35 has fallen to 35%, a nine-year low. J.P. Morgan’s John Sim says mortgage rates could ease into the mid-to-low 6% range sometime in 2027, but any relief would be “more of a thaw than a melt.”

Loose Change

➤ Nearly one in five U.S. families fell behind on debt payments in 2025, according to a Federal Reserve survey—the highest share since 2010. That happened even as the typical family’s income rose 7% after inflation since 2022. (More)

➤ The Supreme Court appears likely to side with Intel in a case over whether workers can sue when their 401(k) investments lag. A former employee says hedge funds and private equity in Intel’s retirement funds dragged down returns, while Intel says they were meant to limit losses in downturns. (More)

➤ SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide cellphone airwaves to turn Starlink into a mobile phone service. Shares of Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile fell sharply on Friday as a result of the news. (More)

➤ Social Security checks could rise 3.5% to 3.6% in January, which would be one of the biggest raises in more than a decade. The government announces the official number Wednesday, and a higher Medicare Part B premium could eat into the extra money. (More)

➤ Starter home prices have jumped 30.8% since 2019, from about $260,000 to $340,000. Condos and townhomes now make up 27.1% of starter-priced listings, up from 18%. (More)

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